What is a Moneyline?

A moneyline bet is the simplest type of sports bet: you pick which fighter will win, and that's it. No point spreads, no totals — just pick the winner.

In combat sports, the moneyline is by far the most popular bet type because fights have a clear winner and loser (with rare exceptions like draws or no contests in boxing).

American odds are displayed as positive (+) or negative (-) numbers:

- Negative (-) = Favorite — The number shows how much you need to bet to win $100. Example: -200 means bet $200 to win $100.
- Positive (+) = Underdog — The number shows how much you win on a $100 bet. Example: +150 means a $100 bet wins $150.

So if you see:
- Fighter A: -250 (heavy favorite)
- Fighter B: +200 (underdog)

A $250 bet on Fighter A wins $100 if they win. A $100 bet on Fighter B wins $200 if they pull the upset.

Every moneyline has an implied probability — the win percentage the odds represent:

- For favorites (-odds): Probability = odds / (odds + 100)
- For underdogs (+odds): Probability = 100 / (odds + 100)

Examples:
- -200 = 200/(200+100) = 66.7%
- +150 = 100/(150+100) = 40.0%

Note: The sum of both sides will be over 100% — that's the sportsbook's juice (profit margin). Use the Knockout Odds Implied Probability Calculator to do this math instantly.

Key moneyline strategies for MMA and boxing:

- Compare across sportsbooks — The same fight can have significantly different odds at different books. Always get the best line.
- Beware heavy favorites — Betting -400 or higher means you risk a lot to win a little. One upset wipes out four winning bets.
- Underdog value — In MMA especially, underdogs win roughly 35-40% of fights. If you can find underdogs priced at +200 or higher who truly have a 35%+ chance, that's +EV.