Prates Predicts KO of Makhachev After Early Beating

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Carlos Prates says he expects Islam Makhachev to dominate him early with wrestling before he turns the fight around for a knockout win, and he's now angling for a date to make it happen as soon as UFC 335 in December.

Prates, the UFC's No. 1 welterweight contender, laid out the prediction in blunt terms during an interview with Gilbert Burns. He isn't dressing up the matchup or pretending he matches up evenly with Makhachev on the mat. He's simply betting that he can survive it.

"I think I'm going to start by getting smashed and the first time I manage to get back to my feet and start hurting him, I'm going to knock him out somewhere around the fourth or fifth round," Prates said.

Why Prates thinks he can survive Makhachev's wrestling

Prates is leaning on Ian Machado Garry's performance against Makhachev as proof the champion can be taken off his game plan. Makhachev retained his welterweight title with a unanimous decision over Garry at UFC 330 in Philadelphia, and Prates watched Garry defend certain positions off the cage the same way he does in his own fights. That was enough to shift his outlook from hope to genuine belief. "I already thought so and now I saw Garry defend certain positions the same way I do, like the back against the cage," Prates said. "I do that a lot."

His comeback blueprint isn't abstract, either. Prates has publicly compared the fight he envisions to Anderson Silva's 2012 rematch with Chael Sonnen, where Silva absorbed a first round mount before finishing Sonnen in the second. Prates is projecting a similar arc, just stretched into the later rounds given Makhachev's five-round championship pace.

Is the Prates vs. Makhachev fight official?

The fight is not yet officially booked, but Prates says he's in active talks with the UFC about a date. He has floated UFC 335 on Dec. 12 in Las Vegas as his preferred landing spot, and says the promotion has also mentioned a January card in Australia as a backup option. Either way, the timeline points to Prates getting his title shot within the next several months rather than later in 2027.

Betting Angle

Prates enters this discussion off consecutive finishes and a UFC record of 24-7 overall, with his only promotional loss coming by decision to Garry. That loss is exactly why his own prediction is worth taking seriously from a betting standpoint: he's already lived through five rounds against the kind of pressure-heavy, defensively sound striker-wrestler hybrid Makhachev represents, and he knows firsthand how hard it is to change momentum late. Books will almost certainly install Makhachev as a sizable favorite once the fight is made, given his wrestling pedigree and unbeaten record at 155 and 170 pounds. But Prates carries knockout power that Garry lacked, and in a division short on true finishers who can hurt Makhachev standing, that alone should keep his moneyline live and his finishing-method props relevant if the fight gets made for UFC 335 or an early 2027 date in Australia.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Carlos Prates say about fighting Islam Makhachev?

Carlos Prates said he expects to get 'smashed' early by Islam Makhachev's wrestling before turning the fight around for a knockout win around the fourth or fifth round.

Is Carlos Prates vs. Islam Makhachev officially booked?

Not yet. Carlos Prates said he is in discussions with the UFC for a date, with UFC 335 on Dec. 12 in Las Vegas as his preferred option and a January card in Australia as a possible alternative.