Umar Nurmagomedov Picks Yan to Beat Dvalishvili Again

Umar Nurmagomedov is backing Petr Yan to beat Merab Dvalishvili for a second straight time when the two run it back at UFC 333.

Yan defends his UFC bantamweight title against Dvalishvili in a rubber match between two men who have already split a pair of fights, with Yan taking the second meeting. Nurmagomedov, a top 135-pound contender himself, says the difference in that second fight came down to health rather than a change in game plan.

Why Umar Nurmagomedov Likes Yan Again

Nurmagomedov's case for Yan starts with the champion's right hand. "My bet is that Petr will get it done again," Nurmagomedov told Red Corner MMA. He pointed to Yan fighting through a shoulder injury in the first meeting with Dvalishvili, which he believes limited Yan's boxing. "In their first fight he couldn't do that as his shoulder was injured. In the second fight, he could use both of his hands, and it was a completely different story," Nurmagomedov said.

On the trilogy fight itself, Nurmagomedov broke it down as a straightforward stylistic matchup. "Petr has good boxing, Merab has wrestling, but he can't control opponents on the ground the way Aljamain Sterling did," he said, adding that he expects Dvalishvili to get takedowns without being able to hold Yan down. "So, he might take him down, but Petr will get up. That's why I don't see a different outcome," Nurmagomedov said.

What This Means for the Betting Markets

A champion who already has a win over his challenger, and a healthy one at that, is the kind of story line that tends to shade a betting line in the titleholder's favor. Yan's clean sweep of the striking exchanges in the second fight, which Nurmagomedov credits largely to having two functional hands, is exactly the sort of detail bettors will weigh heavily given how much shorter Dvalishvili's path to a decision becomes if he can't consistently keep the fight on the mat. For bettors, the read from someone who shares a division and a training pedigree with these two carries weight: durability and health, not a scouting revelation, decided the second fight, and barring a physical setback for Yan, that same formula is expected to hold up again.

Dvalishvili himself has acknowledged the stakes of the rematch loss, admitting Yan could badly hurt him again in the trilogy. That kind of respect from the challenger himself lines up with Nurmagomedov's read that this is Yan's fight to lose as long as he's fully healthy on fight night.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Umar Nurmagomedov predict for Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 333?

Umar Nurmagomedov predicted that Petr Yan will beat Merab Dvalishvili again at UFC 333, pointing to Yan's improved boxing once he was fully healthy in their second fight.

How many times have Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili fought?

Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili have fought twice, splitting the two bouts, and they meet for a third time at UFC 333 with Yan's bantamweight title on the line.

Why does Umar Nurmagomedov think Petr Yan wins the trilogy?

Umar Nurmagomedov said Petr Yan struggled with a shoulder injury in their first fight but used both hands effectively in the second, and he does not believe Merab Dvalishvili can control Yan on the ground the way Aljamain Sterling once did.