Charles Oliveira Gives Carlos Prates a Real Shot vs. Makhachev

Charles Oliveira believes Carlos Prates has a legitimate path to beating Islam Makhachev if their expected UFC welterweight title fight comes together.

In a recent interview with Sherdog, Oliveira broke down the rumored matchup between Makhachev and Prates, which is being eyed for the promotion's opening numbered card of 2027, tentatively slated for January in Toronto. Oliveira pointed to Ian Garry's gameplan against Prates as a template that could translate into problems for Makhachev.

"I think Garry showed Prates the blueprint," Oliveira said. "I usually say these matchups will be close, but this time, I believe Prates has a real chance to win. Beyond being a sniper, he possesses knockout power and is a black belt in jiu-jitsu. If he lands those kicks to the ribs and calves, just like Garry did, he could catch the champion off guard."

Oliveira added a key condition for Prates to pull off the upset. "If Islam doesn't secure a finish in the first or second round and Prates maintains the composure he's shown in his recent fights, he has everything he needs to win."

Why Oliveira's Read on Prates Carries Weight

Oliveira is one of Makhachev's fiercest career rivals, having lost to him in a lightweight title fight, which makes his willingness to hand Prates a real chance notable rather than routine praise. Prates arrives at this moment off finishes of two former welterweight champions, Jack Della Maddalena and Leon Edwards, a run that has made him the division's most dangerous striker outside the champion himself. His combination of one-shot knockout power and a black belt in jiu-jitsu is exactly the kind of two-way threat that has given Makhachev trouble in grappling exchanges before, at least according to Oliveira's framing of the calf and body kicks that briefly troubled the champion against Garry.

Makhachev, for his part, has made a habit of solving exactly these kinds of puzzles. Wins over Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier show a fighter who adjusts mid-fight and imposes his wrestling once the first read fails. The counter to Oliveira's theory is simple: Makhachev rarely lets a live striking threat stay upright long enough to find a rhythm, and his ability to change levels under fire is what separates him from the strikers Prates has already finished.

Prates' own camp is bullish as well. Teammate Jean Silva has already predicted a knockout win for Prates over Makhachev, adding to the growing chorus of voices who see this as more competitive than a typical Makhachev title defense.

Betting Angle

Books have not yet needed to price this fight since it is not officially announced, but expect Makhachev to open as a solid favorite if Prates is confirmed as the next challenger, given his dominance over the division's best wrestlers and grapplers. The value conversation will center on method and distance rather than the moneyline. Prates' recent finishes have all come via violent striking exchanges rather than decisions, so a Prates win almost certainly means a knockout, which should make that specific prop worth shopping if the matchup gets made. Anyone backing the underdog here is betting that Makhachev's first two rounds look more like his file against Edwards or Volkanovski than his cleanest wrestling-heavy performances.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Islam Makhachev vs. Carlos Prates officially booked?

The fight is rumored to headline a UFC numbered event in January 2027 in Toronto, but it has not been officially confirmed by the UFC.

What did Charles Oliveira say about Carlos Prates beating Islam Makhachev?

Charles Oliveira said Carlos Prates has a real chance to win, citing his knockout power, jiu-jitsu black belt, and the leg and body kicks that troubled Makhachev against Ian Garry.

What is Carlos Prates' recent form heading into a possible Makhachev fight?

Carlos Prates has finished former welterweight champions Jack Della Maddalena and Leon Edwards in his last two outings, building momentum toward a possible title shot.