Jon Jones Picks Tsarukyan to Beat Topuria

Jon Jones made his pick loud and clear: Arman Tsarukyan beats Ilia Topuria, no hesitation required.

What Jones Said and Where He Said It

Jones was in Moscow attending an International Boxing Association card alongside Tsarukyan, Petr Yan, and Alexander Volkov when someone put the question to him. Who wins between Tsarukyan and Topuria? Jones didn't pause. "You already know, Arman all day," he said. Tsarukyan, clearly pleased, joked that he would have wrestled "Bones" if Jones had gone the other way. It was a light moment, but the pick itself carries real weight given the timing.

The Backstory Behind the Tsarukyan vs Topuria Missed Matchup

This fight should have happened already. When Topuria moved up to lightweight, Tsarukyan was the logical opponent. But Tsarukyan had pulled out of a scheduled title fight against Islam Makhachev and fallen out of the UFC's good graces because of it. Topuria ended up fighting Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title instead, and won it. Tsarukyan started lobbying for a shot after that, but Topuria pivoted toward Paddy Pimblett. That went nowhere when Pimblett lost an interim title fight to Justin Gaethje.

Then came the fight that reshuffled everything. Topuria entered his interim title defense against Gaethje as a massive favorite. Gaethje handed him a brutal beating, forcing Topuria's corner to stop it at the end of the fourth round. Topuria's first professional loss, and it wasn't a close call.

Now Tsarukyan himself has said he doesn't think Topuria comes back the same fighter after that kind of defeat. That belief, shared openly, has cooled his own enthusiasm for the matchup he spent months chasing.

Betting Angle: Tsarukyan vs Topuria Market Outlook

Before the Gaethje fight, Topuria was being treated by the markets as one of the most dangerous fighters in the sport, a guy who could clean out the lightweight division. That narrative is damaged now. A corner stoppage loss after four rounds of punishment changes how oddsmakers and bettors price a fighter, at least in the short term.

If Tsarukyan and Topuria eventually meet, the line will look very different than it would have six months ago. Tsarukyan, a decorated grappler and wrestler with legitimate title credentials, was already a credible threat on paper. Jones picking him "all day" reflects a view that Tsarukyan's style gives Topuria real problems, and that assessment probably aligns with how sharp bettors would approach this fight.

The bigger market question right now is what Topuria's stock looks like going forward. Fighters who absorb that kind of physical punishment and lose in that fashion sometimes see their odds drift toward underdog territory for a stretch, even against opponents they might have been favored against before. Tsarukyan, meanwhile, has stayed relevant despite his own detour away from the title picture. His market value should be climbing.

Jones picking Tsarukyan isn't just locker-room talk. It reflects a genuine stylistic read, and bettors who agree with that read now have a cleaner window to back Tsarukyan at favorable prices before the broader market fully adjusts to the post-Gaethje reality.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who does Jon Jones think wins between Arman Tsarukyan and Ilia Topuria?

Jon Jones said "Arman all day" when asked to pick between the two, making his preference for Tsarukyan clear without any hesitation.

Why didn't Arman Tsarukyan fight Ilia Topuria for the lightweight title?

Tsarukyan had fallen out of the UFC's favor after pulling out of a scheduled title fight against Islam Makhachev, so Topuria ended up fighting Charles Oliveira for the vacant title instead.

How did Ilia Topuria lose his lightweight title fight?

Justin Gaethje handed Topuria a brutal beating at UFC White House, with Topuria's corner throwing in the towel at the end of the fourth round, marking Topuria's first professional loss.