Tsarukyan Huge Favorite Over Gaethje, Kape Favored Over Van

Arman Tsarukyan has opened as a massive betting favorite in a hypothetical lightweight title fight against Justin Gaethje, while Manel Kape is favored to take the flyweight belt off Joshua Van, according to lines posted by BetOnline following UFC 331.

Neither fight is official. But UFC 331 reshuffled both divisions enough on Saturday night in Los Angeles that oddsmakers moved fast to price the two most obvious next title fights, and the numbers tell very different stories about how each matchup is viewed.

Why Is Tsarukyan Such a Big Favorite Over Gaethje?

Tsarukyan is being installed as roughly an 81.8 percent favorite to beat Gaethje and become lightweight champion, based on the BetOnline line. That kind of number for a fight between the champion and his top contender is lopsided, and it reflects how Tsarukyan looked in the co-main event. He knocked out Mauricio Ruffy with a first round elbow, a finish that came with six seconds left in the round and extended his winning streak to six straight. Tsarukyan entered UFC 331 already ranked as the promotion's number one lightweight contender, and the manner of the win, not just the result, is clearly driving the market. Nothing is booked yet for Gaethje, but the assumption across the sport is that Tsarukyan is next in line.

Kape Favored, But Bettors Aren't Fully Buying It

Kape opened as the betting favorite to beat Van for the flyweight title, with the line implying a 61.5 percent chance of him winning the belt, but the public has already pushed that number down toward a pick'em fight. That gap between the opening number and where the public has taken it is worth watching. Van just turned in what may have been the best performance of his career, retaining his title with a clear-cut decision over Alexandre Pantoja in the UFC 331 main event. A 24-year-old champion beating a former two-time title challenger convincingly is usually the kind of win that makes a fighter a bigger favorite next time out, not a live underdog. Instead, oddsmakers are treating Van's leash as short and viewing Kape as live to take the belt, even before a bout agreement exists.

Betting Angle

The two lines are really telling different stories about how sportsbooks read title reigns right now. Tsarukyan at roughly 82 percent isn't just a reflection of his win, it's a statement that Gaethje, even as champion, is viewed as clearly the second-best lightweight in the world at this moment. The Kape number is softer and already shrinking, which suggests the market respects Van's power and durability even in a fight he's supposed to lose more often than not. Bettors who wait for either fight to actually get booked should expect the Tsarukyan line to hold firm or tighten only slightly, while the Van-Kape number looks like the one with real room to move once fight week approaches and public money keeps coming in on the champion.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Arman Tsarukyan fighting Justin Gaethje next?

No fight is officially booked, but Arman Tsarukyan is widely expected to be the next challenger for Justin Gaethje's UFC lightweight title after knocking out Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331, and oddsmakers already have him as a heavy favorite in that hypothetical matchup.

Why is Manel Kape favored over Joshua Van despite Van winning at UFC 331?

Joshua Van successfully defended his flyweight title with a unanimous decision over Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 331, but Manel Kape still opened as the betting favorite in a hypothetical title fight against him, with oddsmakers giving Kape roughly a 61.5 percent implied chance of winning the belt.

How did Arman Tsarukyan beat Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331?

Arman Tsarukyan knocked out Mauricio Ruffy in the first round of their UFC 331 co-main event with a clinch elbow, extending his winning streak to six fights.