UFC 329 Odds: Holloway Favored Over McGregor in Rematch
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Max Holloway is favored over Conor McGregor in their long-awaited rematch headlining UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with Holloway sitting at -227 and McGregor at +192. The two first met 13 years ago, and McGregor returns to the Octagon after a five-year absence from competition, a layoff the betting markets are clearly weighing heavily in Holloway's favor.
Why Is Holloway Favored Over McGregor Despite Losing Their First Fight
Holoway lost the original meeting with McGregor 13 years ago, but the odds have flipped entirely in his favor this time. The gap comes down to activity and recency. Holloway has stayed in the cage and competing at a high level, while McGregor hasn't fought in five years. Bettors backing McGregor are essentially betting on ring rust being a myth for a fighter of his caliber, and on the idea that his power and counter game can still turn a fight in an instant regardless of layoff. Holloway backers are leaning on volume, cardio and consistency against a fighter who has not tested any of that in half a decade.
What Else Is Notable On The UFC 329 Card
Benoit St. Denis enters as a slight favorite at -135 over Paddy Pimblett (+115) in a co-main that carries its own betting intrigue. St. Denis is on a four-fight finishing streak, while Pimblett is coming off the first loss of his UFC career, and the line reflects a close, competitive matchup rather than a clear gap in class.
Cory Sandhagen (-140) is favored over Mario Bautista (+120) in a rematch of a 2019 bout in which Sandhagen handed Bautista his first professional loss. Sandhagen is coming off a failed title bid last year, and the odds suggest the market still sees him as the more dangerous striker of the two.
Lone'er Kavanagh (-221) is favored over Brandon Royval (+186) after Kavanagh's win over former champion Brandon Moreno in Mexico City. Royval is trying to snap a two-fight losing skid, and the number indicates the market believes Kavanagh's momentum carries real weight here.
Terrance McKinney (-135) is favored over King Green (+115), though Green's veteran boxing and defensive experience make him a live underdog against a younger opponent. Robert Whittaker (-130) is a modest favorite over Nikita Krylov (+110) in his first fight at light heavyweight, a close number given Krylov's size and experience at 205 pounds.
Gable Steveson is one of the largest favorites in UFC history at -3300 against Elisha Ellison (+1400) in his promotional debut, a line that leaves almost no room for a competitive read. Adrian Yanez (-450) is heavily favored over former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt (+350), and Luke Riley (-260) is favored over Kai Kamaka III (+220).
Betting Angle
The McGregor number is the story of this card. A former two-division champion getting nearly 2-to-1 underdog odds against a man he already has a win over tells you how much stock the market puts in ring rust and Father Time over five years away. Anyone backing McGregor is betting on the idea that elite power and finishing instincts age slower than everything else, while Holloway money is a bet on volume and conditioning against a fighter who hasn't had to answer either in years. Elsewhere, the Sandhagen-Bautista rematch and the St. Denis-Pimblett co-main both carry real value for bettors who like live underdogs in close fights, given how tight both lines are relative to the styles involved.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored in the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway rematch at UFC 329?
Max Holloway is favored over Conor McGregor at UFC 329, with Holloway listed at -227 and McGregor at +192 ahead of their rematch on July 11 in Las Vegas.
When and where is UFC 329 taking place?
UFC 329 takes place Saturday, July 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and is headlined by Max Holloway against Conor McGregor.
What other fights are on the UFC 329 card?
UFC 329 also features Benoit St. Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett, Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista, Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh, King Green vs. Terrance McKinney, and Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov, among others.
